Split View: 미중 반도체 기술 냉전 2026: 심화되는 디커플링과 한국 기업의 생존 전략

Target Applications:
- All IT solutions with remote access to China's critical infrastructure
- Cloud-based software and management tools
- VPN-enabled development and maintenance activities

Regulatory Requirements:
1. Prior government approval mandatory
2. Data localization enforcement
3. Source code disclosure (security justification)
4. China-based responsible person requirement
5. Monthly security audits minimum

Penalties for Violation:
- Fines up to 5 million yuan (approximately 850,000 dollars)
- Business suspension and forced exit

Investment Scale:
- 2024: 24 billion dollars
- 2025: 26.4 billion dollars (+10%)
- 2026: 29 billion dollars (+10% planned)
- 2030 Target: 50 billion dollars

Major Projects:
1. SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International)
   - 14nm process mass production: H1 2026 plan
   - 7nm process: 2027 target
   - Goal: Avoid US sanctions while building domestic supply chain

2. Huawei HiSilicon
   - Develop Arm architecture independently
   - Kirin processor self-design
   - Smartphone and 5G infrastructure chips self-reliance

3. Chinese Memory Chips
   - YMTC (Yangtze Memory Technologies)
   - 3D NAND Flash technology advancement
   - DDR4/DDR5 domestic production

4. RISC-V Based Processors
   - Develop on open-source to evade US sanctions
   - Server, IoT, embedded system chips
   - Gradual market penetration strategy

1. CHIPS and Science Act Enhancement
   - Expanded domestic production investment
   - Taiwan/Korean company US production attraction
   - Incentive intensification: Up to 50% additional tax benefits

2. Chip 4 Alliance Expansion
   - Original members: US, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea
   - New cooperators: Netherlands, Germany
   - Mutual cooperation in leading-edge chip design, manufacturing equipment, materials

3. Export Control Intensification
   - GAAFET (Gate-All-Around FET) 7nm and below tighter controls
   - AI chips (H100, A100 class) banned for China sales
   - Design tools (EDA): Synopsys, Cadence, Mentor restrictions
   - Semiconductor equipment: ASML, LRCX, AMAT export limitations

4. Transnational Data Control
   - Domestic management of semiconductor design data
   - Domestic retention of 5G/6G chip design mandatory
   - AI chip patriotism act: Domestic customer priority

1. Geographic Diversification
   - Taiwan: Maintain advanced processes (3nm, 2nm)
   - USA (Arizona): 4nm, 5nm production
   - Japan (Kumamoto): 22nm and mature processes
   - Singapore: R&D and design centers

   Effect: Legitimacy with both US and China

2. Core Chips Taiwan-Only Production
   - Latest AI chips (NVIDIA, AMD)
   - Smartphone chips (Apple A18, high-performance)
   - Advanced logic chips

   Effect: Restrict China exports

3. China-Specific Chips from Overseas Production
   - Huawei, Baidu, ByteDance custom designs
   - 14nm, 7nm mature processes
   - Minimize US technology use

   Effect: Evade US sanctions

1. DRAM and NAND Flash: Sell to All
   - US customers: Government-supervised sales
   - China customers: "Our design, our production" rationale
   - Component supplier diversification minimizes risk

2. Foundry Business Strengthening
   - Current: Second globally (after TSMC)
   - Goal: Market share growth through 5nm yield improvement
   - US customer preference: Leveraging government incentives

3. Korean Government Coordination
   - Maintain US security alliance
   - Parallel economic relations with China
   - "Korean company but global" positioning

4. Materials and Equipment Self-Sufficiency
   - Reduce Japan dependency
   - Foster Korean semiconductor component industry
   - 2026 Goal: 40% materials/equipment self-sufficiency

1. Maintain Chinese Factory Ambiguity
   - Wuxi facility: Government-named ownership
   - Actual operations: SK Hynix managed
   - Official status: "Cooperative partner"

2. DRAM Shift to High-Value Segments
   - Exit low-price competition
   - HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) development
   - AI data center-specific DRAM sales

3. Aggressive Lobbying
   - US negotiation through Korean government
   - "Korean company competitiveness protection" rationale
   - Request China control mitigation

4. Minimize China R&D
   - Reduce US technology application
   - Emphasize Korean and Taiwan design
   - Lower China sanctions risk

Arm's Strategy:
- Maintain "neutral design company" image
- Retain Chinese chip design contracts
- Provide US-technology-removed versions for China

Qualcomm's Strategy:
- Begin China sales reduction strategy
- Expand US/allied customer base
- Relocate R&D to US/Japan
- Long-term goal: China sales below 30%

US-Led:
- NVIDIA: AI chips
- AMD: CPU/GPU
- Apple: Smartphone chips
- Qualcomm: Mobile SoC
- Broadcom: Networking

China:
- Huawei HiSilicon: Independent development
- Baidu: AI chip development
- ByteDance: Proprietary chip design

Taiwan/Korea:
- MediaTek: Smartphone chips
- Samsung Foundry: Foundry design

Cutting-Edge Processes (5nm and below):
- TSMC (Taiwan): 80%+
- Samsung (Korea): 10%+
- US/Japan market entry beginning

Mature Processes (28nm and above):
- China SMIC: 35%
- Samsung Foundry: 20%
- TSMC: 20%
- Others: 25%

Cutting-Edge Equipment:
- ASML (Netherlands): Monopolistic
- Canon, Nikon (Japan): Alternatives

Mature Equipment:
- US, Japanese companies
- Chinese companies advancing

Materials:
- Fluorine compounds: Japan (monopolistic)
- Silicon: US, Japan
- High-purity materials: Primarily US

1. Chinese Market Contraction Risk
   - Samsung memory chip China sales: 5 billion annually
   - SMIC development begins replacement

2. US-China Bilateral Pressure
   - US: Korea not supplying China demanded
   - China: Retaliatory sanctions possible

3. Technology Lag Risk
   - Korean logic chip design capability lacking
   - CPU design: Virtually non-existent
   - GPU design: Samsung recently starting
   - AI chip design: Still underdeveloped

4. Sharpened Allied Competition
   - TSMC: Production capacity expansion
   - Japan: 2nm technology under development
   - US: Government support intensification

1. Chip 4 Alliance Member Status
   - US top-priority ally
   - Technology transfer and cooperation opportunities
   - Government funding preference

2. Global Customer Diversification
   - US companies seeking alternative suppliers
   - Taiwan concentration reduction efforts
   - Samsung foundry business growth potential

3. Emerging Market Segments
   - AI chips: Edge AI, custom chips
   - 5G/6G: Communications chip development
   - Automotive: Vehicle chip market growth

4. Post-Process Industry Strengthening
   - Assembly, test high-value-addition
   - Packaging technology improvement
   - ASE Taiwan, JCET competition intensification

1. Semiconductor Self-Sufficiency Enhancement
   - Design: Expanded AI, communications chip investment
   - Equipment/Materials: Domestic technology development
   - Goal: 50% materials/equipment self-sufficiency by 2030

2. Multi-Security Structure Building
   - Alliance leadership in Chip 4
   - Japan cooperation: Equipment/materials joint development
   - European relations: Supply chain diversification

3. China Economic Relations Rationalization
   - Break one-way dependency
   - Selective cooperation maintenance
   - Strengthened technology leakage prevention

1. Design Company Development
   - Expanded government R&D funding
   - Startup support intensification
   - US design company cooperation

2. Next-Generation Process Development
   - Samsung: 3nm, 2nm technology advancement
   - New materials research: GaN, SiC
   - Packaging technology innovation: Chiplet, 3D IC

3. Global Partnership
   - Taiwan: Design-manufacturing cooperation
   - Japan: Equipment/materials cooperation
   - US: Technology transfer and joint development